Novo Nordisk’s shares skilled the sharpest month-to-month decline since July 2002 as a consequence of rising competitors and a number of other disappointing trial outcomes. Nevertheless, analysts stay optimistic concerning the shares, forecasting a possible worth upside of as much as 60% over the following 12 months.
Europe’s largest pharmaceutical agency, Novo Nordisk, noticed its shares tumble 27% in March, marking their worst month-to-month efficiency since July 2002. As of market shut on 31 March, the Danish agency’s share worth had fallen to 469.8 Danish Krone (€63), its lowest stage since February 2023. The inventory has now declined 54% from its all-time excessive in June 2024, dropping its place as Europe’s most precious firm to LVMH and SAP.
Eli Lilly posts rising menace to Novo Nordisk’s market share
Buyers offered off Novo Nordisk’s shares as a consequence of rising competitors from its US rival Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly’s weight-loss medication, Zepbound and Mounjaro, straight rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic, intensifying the aggressive panorama. Yr-to-date, Novo’s shares have dropped 25%, whereas Eli’s inventory has gained 4.6%.
The latest US weekly prescription information confirmed indicators that Novo Nordisk could also be dropping market share to Eli Lilly, resulting in a 0.9% drop in Novo’s inventory and a 0.4% acquire in Eli Lilly’s shares on the ultimate buying and selling day of March.
Novo Nordisk’s web revenue margin declined to 34.8% in 2024, down from 36% in 2023. Moreover, the corporate offered softer steering for 2025, forecasting income development of 16% to 24% at fixed forex—the mid-point marking the slowest tempo in three years. Analysts at Financial institution of America count on additional downward revisions to its 2025 development outlook when the corporate studies quarterly earnings in Could.
Investor considerations have additionally been heightened by US President Donald Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical merchandise, which may erode revenue margins.
Disappointing trial outcomes weigh on shares
A sequence of disappointing trial outcomes for Novo Nordisk’s next-generation weight-loss medication has exacerbated investor considerations about its competitiveness. In December 2024, the corporate introduced part 3 trial outcomes for its new weight problems drug, CagriSema, revealing a weight lack of 22.7% after 68 weeks—in need of the projected 25%. The announcement triggered a 20% single-day drop in Novo’s share worth, the sharpest in its historical past.
In early March, the corporate launched up to date trial information exhibiting that CagriSema solely achieved a 15.7% weight discount over 68 weeks, prompting an 8% decline in its share worth.
In the meantime, Eli Lilly is predicted to launch trial outcomes for its newest weight-loss drug, retatrutide, later this 12 months. Preliminary outcomes printed in September confirmed that sufferers who took retatrutide skilled a 24% weight discount after 68 weeks. Each CagriSema and retatrutide are set to hunt regulatory approval within the first quarter of 2026.
Worth cuts in the preferred weight-loss drug
Regardless of latest setbacks, Novo Nordisk’s newest worth cuts for its main weight-loss drug, Wegovy, have been seen as a strategic transfer to strengthen its US market share. Following the US Meals and Drug Administration’s announcement that shortages of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy had ended, each firms launched on-line pharmacies providing lower-cost, reduced-dosage vials for weight-loss therapies. Novo Nordisk now offers cash-paying clients with a 50% low cost on Wegovy, a transfer seen as a bid to regain market share.
Many analysts stay bullish on Novo Nordisk’s long-term development prospects. In line with consensus estimates from Markets Insider and Bloomberg, the inventory may see a median of 57% to 60% upside potential over the following 12 months.
