Slovakia at ‘critical crossroads’ as months of protest threaten pro-Moscow Fico

As large anti-government demonstrations in Slovakia attain the three-month mark, protest organisers and political observers alike say that the nation is at a crossroads within the face of populist Prime Minister Robert Fico’s flip away from the EU and in direction of Moscow.   

On Friday, crowds will take to the streets throughout the nation as soon as once more to voice their discontent with Fico, who has pivoted to the east since taking workplace for a fourth time in October 2023. Since then, critics have decried his authorities as more and more authoritarian and repressive. 

“The sense is that on many points, the federal government is attempting to cross the road with regards to the rule of legislation or civil society, and that by organising, protesting or taking authorized motion, these steps may be slowed down or stopped,” stated Jana Kobzová, a Slovak political scientist and visiting fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations (ECFR).

The protests started in late December after Fico met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, making him one in every of solely three EU leaders to take action because the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Slovakia’s premier had already wooed the Kremlin by halting navy assist to Ukraine and vowing to thwart its NATO aspirations, whereas opposing EU sanctions on Russia. 

A few month after that go to, Fico raised the opportunity of Slovakia leaving the EU and NATO and referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “an enemy”, elevating additional alarm amongst massive swathes of Slovak society who’re staunchly pro-Western. 

His views are effectively out of line with public opinion: practically two-thirds of Slovaks align with the West, in keeping with a survey revealed this month by the Future Slovakia Discussion board, an NGO advocating for a “stronger EU”.

Native media shops estimated that about 100,000 individuals within the nation of 5.4 million took to the streets in late January, representing Slovakia’s largest road demonstrations because the 1989 Velvet Revolution, when a long time of communist rule within the former Czechoslovakia ended peacefully weeks after the Berlin Wall fell.

During the last three months, tens of hundreds of individuals have rallied each fortnight in Bratislava and past, demanding Fico’s resignation with the slogan “Slovakia is Europe”. Protests have additionally taken place in cities comparable to Berlin, Brussels and London. 

Whereas attendance numbers have fallen since, the civic group orchestrating the protests, Mier Ukrajine (Peace for Ukraine), says there’s nonetheless momentum behind the motion and that Slovakia’s stronger-than-ever civil society is “able to defend democracy”.

“The protests have developed from one-time gatherings into a scientific motion geared toward sustaining strain on the federal government and maintaining public debate alive concerning the nation’s route,” Lucia Stasselová, one of many group’s founders, advised Euronews.

The Slovakia info ministry and the prime minister’s workplace didn’t reply to requests for remark.

In late January, Fico accused the opposition of attempting to “organise a coup” because the anti-government demonstrations escalated, however didn’t current any proof of this.

The prime minister stated on the time he would “allow them to (individuals in Slovakia) protest and shout as a lot as they need”, however criticised unspecified “atrocities” allegedly being ready by the opposition, Slovak media and NGOs funded from overseas.

Fico’s anti-EU flip

Probably the most stunning features of the protests, in keeping with analysts, is that they haven’t been confined to main cities however have additionally taken place in areas the place help for Fico’s ruling leftist-nationalist Smer (Course) celebration is especially robust. 

“The protests are spreading to smaller cities, which isn’t standard in Slovakia,” Juraj Marušiak, a political scientist on the Slovak Academy of Sciences, advised Euronews. “The mobilisation of members in such areas, the place Smer and its allies normally have a snug majority, can also be a breakthrough.”

The demonstrations taking place in Smer strongholds may trigger a headache for Fico provided that his celebration received 2023 parliamentary elections by campaigning on a pro-Russian platform and specializing in beforehand untapped anti-state and anti-establishment voters.

That represented a big shift for the 60-year-old, who began his three-decade political profession on the left and beforehand stated Slovakia needs to be on the “core of the EU”. 

The turning level got here in 2018 when journalist Ján Kuciak — who had been investigating high-level graft — and his fiancee Martina Kušnírová have been murdered by a contract killer, triggering big protests that compelled Fico to resign from his third spell as prime minister.

“(Fico) had been a staunch supporter of Europe up till his compelled resignation following the murders of Kuciak and Kušnírová,” stated Samo Marec, a Slovak columnist and writer.

“His pro-Russian, authoritarian and pro-conspiracy flip has thus been years within the making.”

Smer misplaced energy within the 2020 parliamentary elections, defeated by events vowing to deal with corruption. With the celebration marginalised, it polled at beneath 10% at one level. However Fico ultimately began adopting extra excessive positions and espousing pro-Moscow rhetoric that attracted many Slovaks.

In keeping with a latest ballot by the company Focus, virtually half of Smer voters are in favour of nearer bilateral ties with Russia — the best proportion of supporters of any Slovak celebration. 

“I feel Fico is attempting to steadiness between Europe and Russia, whereas being conscious of Slovakia’s embeddedness within the EU,” stated Marušiak.

He in contrast Fico’s place with that of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been the primary EU critic and antagonist inside the bloc, in addition to Putin’s most ardent ally. 

“(Fico’s) important goal is to remain in energy for so long as potential and to stop a repeat of the occasions of 2018,” Marušiak added. “That’s the reason he’s attempting to mobilise the pro-Russian a part of society, as that is the phase the place he can nonetheless draw voters.”

Smer didn’t reply to emailed questions from Euronews.

A ‘Slovak Maidan’?

Underneath his more and more authoritarian drift, Fico’s three-party coalition authorities, which is led by Smer and supported by the left-wing populist Hlas celebration and the nationalist Slovak Nationwide Get together (SNS), has been accused by civil society teams and the opposition of attacking democratic values and establishments, justice and the rule of legislation.  

His administration has shelved the Particular Prosecutor’s Workplace — which dealt with high-profile graft circumstances — reformed the penal code to melt penalties for corruption, and reworked the general public broadcaster into what’s now broadly thought-about to be a state-controlled operation.

These and different insurance policies which have drawn extreme criticism from civil society, not least since a number of of Fico’s associates and other people linked to Smer, together with its politicians, face prosecution in corruption scandals.

Slovakia dropped 12 locations in Transparency’s Worldwide’s newest annual Corruption Perceptions Index, which ranked it 59th out of 180 international locations analysed.

This was as a result of authorities’s political appointments, bypassing of legislative procedures and undermining of unbiased establishments and media, in addition to assaults towards NGOs, the watchdog stated.

Stasselová stated Fico’s objective was to “weaken the rule of legislation, management the media, and marginalise the opposition in order that he can govern with out actual oversight”.

An assassination try towards Fico final Could, by which he suffered a number of wounds after being shot within the stomach as he greeted supporters, seems to have entrenched his hostile rhetoric in direction of civil society, the media and the opposition. 

In January, a whole lot of Slovak psychiatrists and psychologists wrote an open letter to Fico by which they raised concern about his authorities’s affect on the nation’s democracy and international standing.

Within the letter, the well being professionals stated the “aggressiveness and emotional explosiveness in your public appearances have turn out to be extra pronounced after the assassination try”.

Fico responded to the letter in a Fb submit, accusing the authors of disrespect and claiming they might help a “Slovak Maidan, which the Slovak opposition, with the total help of foreign-funded NGOs and the anti-Slovak media, is working exhausting on”.

And final month, Slovakia’s PM shared on X a letter he penned to Elon Musk, praising the tech billionaire and key ally of US President Donald Trump for dismantling the US Company for Worldwide Growth, or USAID.

Fico stated the company’s funds had been used to “distort the political system and favour particular political events”, however didn’t present any proof of this.

Coalition chaos

Whereas the protesters are calling for Fico to step down, he’s unlikely to depart energy anytime quickly. A number of analysts and activists advised Euronews that he’s benefiting from the disjointed state of the Slovak opposition.

“I feel the opposition has an issue that it is just reacting to the federal government’s actions,” stated Marušiak. “The very fact is that there isn’t a clear political response and there’s additionally no initiative on the a part of the opposition, since Smer, in contrast to the opposition, is ready for potential early elections,” he added.

This was echoed by Stasselová, who stated the opposition “should provide actual options and turn out to be extra proactive”, moderately than ready for the federal government to slide up. 

Fico’s parliamentary coalition shouldn’t be impervious. For the reason that finish of final yr, it has been rocked by the defection of three SNS lawmakers and the insurrection of 4 Hlas politicians towards the federal government; two of them have been expelled from the celebration.

Whereas the federal government holds 79 seats within the 150-seat parliament, the disputes and defections at one level left it and not using a clear majority. 

Fico’s grip on energy was examined additional in mid-January when opposition events tried to provoke a no-confidence vote towards the federal government. 

But the movement was withdrawn after Fico demanded that half the parliamentary session be made personal on the grounds he was sharing confidential info.

Michal Šimečka, chief of the primary opposition celebration, Progressive Slovakia, accused Fico of being “afraid to debate his failures,” and stated he can be making ready to convey the vote once more quickly. 

Amid the turmoil, Fico stated final month that the federal government had regained its slim majority after a cope with the coalition companions to reshuffle the cupboard and enhance Smer’s energy.

Nonetheless, the federal government will proceed to face strain over financial instability, declining dwelling requirements relative to different EU member states, and Fico’s unpopular flip in direction of Moscow.

However whereas the protesters will hold taking part in their half, extra motion is required, stated Stasselová.

“Protests are only one instrument — we want strain from all sides: the media, civil society, and even worldwide actors,” she stated.

“Slovakia is at a vital crossroads, and its future route is being determined proper now.”